Thursday, 25 February 2010 14:45
In 2010 major trends in IT, law and business intersect in the nine postulations or game changers below.
Readers who find them cryptic can use the tags or search facility on this site or see the reading list at the end.
- The technology topology of the emerging landscape is shaping around mobile computing or devices, cloud computing, and changing user habits. This impacts the work, life, play and commuting time of users. Want engaged users? Put your content ready for access on smartphones. I catch a bus to work. In 2010 for every five computers focused on a mobile device there's only one reading a newspaper.
- More and more developments are bottom up. Through IT and globalisation cultures are moving from single mode to multi-mode processes. This includes for research, production and distribution. This article comes to you via the Joomla content management system, an open source and globalised product that originates from Australia.
- Content can arrive via more control mechanisms than has been traditional. The control of copyright and the costs of reproduction and distribution continue to wane. Additional or new control mechanisms fuel monopoly rent desire, eg - DRM (with Apple maybe adding that at a chip level for the iPad), "free" email addresses offered by Apple (me.com), Google (gmail.com), Microsoft (live.com) and others; and open APIs replicating icons across screens, websites and blogs. The icon links of Google, Facebook and Twitter are becoming ubiquitous.
- Enterprise 2.0 is getting bigger because it's about what's been growing for decades - the escalating role for collaboration. Web 2.0 in the enterprise can be designed to fuel collaboration. Ladies and gentlemen, open up your intranets for collaborations among your people and outsiders.
- Notions about what should constitute infringement of copyright are changing. The judiciary have reached surprising decisions in the iiNet and Sensis first round decisions, both now on appeal to the full Federal Court. Judges are human, part of the body politic. All citizens, especially among those under 30, increasingly view the monopoly rent claims of the IP establishment with suspicion. This is a trend line towards revolution, though it will take time. While people repeat the myth that money (ie monopoly rent) promotes IP creation, the truth is money helps industrialise the outputs of creativity, it is not essential for inspiring creativity. Capitalists are already voting with their feet, shifting from copyright as a control mechanism for software towards also adding patents. Noticed the escalating number of patent filings in recent years, globally? Noticed the cost of patent litigation (not just in the US but in Australia too) and the size of patent damages awards over recent years (especially in the US)?
- It's about brands and contracts stupid! This is so including in the media, information and entertainment sectors. Good ones work exceedingly well, even on infants. Exhibit A - Australia's highest entertainment IP earners, The Wiggles.
- Successful enterprises in online search, social media and services are actively de-monetising and re-monetising. So we have among the leaders in this game Google, Facebook and Apple (with its hardware devices and iTunes combo). All are devilishly clever. These players de-monetise by being especially destructive on paid content, resulting in "spoiled markets" (eg for newspapers). These markets are spoiled for the incumbents because of changing consumer price/value perceptions and moreover by the changing perceptions of those who fund most media - the advertisers. As the newcomers vanquish the incumbents they de-monetise the incumbents then into the open gap they re-monetise the market for themselves taking the eyeballs (facetime ?), audience engagement and advertising dollars with them.
- What's happening to advertising has been the news for a decade. Central there has been a media technology business approaching a stock market valuation in 2010 of $US400 billion. Google. It sells publishers to users (AdWords) and brings users to publishers (search). Now read all about the growing significance of additional financial models, eg subscription, fee for service, commission, micro-payments, and virtual goods.
- We all have to deal with new delivery modes - game platforms, tablet computers, smarter phones etc. All this reconfirms that new media is about fractionalisation rather than convergence.